Providence Decision Lab | Lagos Flood Resilience

Step 1 of 4

Set the decision baseline

Decision envelope

One budget, three portfolios

User controlled

Geography Flood-resilience budget (₦ billion) Analysis period Model seed

Evidence baseline

Editable normalized placeholders

Pending verification

Maintenance backlog Pending verificationidx Drainage condition Pending verification/100 Exposed locations Pending verificationidx Critical facilities at risk Pending verificationidx Emergency-response capacity Pending verification/100

Model contract

Comparative planning rules

Normalized placeholders and linear effects support transparent comparison only. They are not Lagos observations, flood forecasts, or engineering estimates.

Scenario comparison

Same envelope. Different trade-offs.

Locked envelope₦10.0B each

Comparative output	Maintenance first	Critical hotspots first	Balanced resilience

Sensitivity controls

Test delivery pressure

Budget execution 100% Intervention costs 0% Rainfall severity stress 0% Procurement delay 0%

Scenario	Exposed locations	Service continuity	Coverage	Monitoring	Risk	Rank

Independent stress checks

Accountable choice

Record the human decision

Preferred portfolioDecision rationaleDecision ownerI have reviewed the evidence gaps and planning assumptions.

Review required Name the decision owner, acknowledge evidence gaps, and inspect the printable brief.