Providence Decision Lab

Step 1 of 4

Set the decision baseline

Decision envelope

One budget, three strategies

User controlled

State Road budget (₦ billion) Analysis period Model seed

Evidence baseline

What the model starts with

3 assumptions

Population Sourced: 2006 census State road network Planning assumptionkm Maintenance backlog Planning assumptionkm Reliable road access Planning assumption%

National Bureau of Statistics demographic bulletin ↗

Model contract

Transparent planning rules

Outputs are calculations derived from editable baselines and fixed unit-effect assumptions. They require engineering and evidence review.

Scenario comparison

Same envelope. Different trade-offs.

Locked envelope₦10.0B each

Outcome after 12 months	Current programme	Maintenance first	Priority corridors

Sensitivity controls

Test delivery pressure

Budget execution 100% Material cost change 0%

Scenario	Access gain	Travel-time gain	Backlog	Risk	Rank

Preset checks

Accountable choice

Record the decision

Preferred strategy Decision rationale Decision owner I have reviewed the evidence gaps and planning assumptions.

Review required Name the decision owner, acknowledge evidence gaps, and inspect the printable brief.